Apple is about to announce its financial results for the Christmas quarter to present. Many analysts and investors are wondering whether the new AI functions under the name Apple Intelligence will trigger the hoped-for "super cycle" for the iPhone. A super cycle means that a particularly large number of customers switch to a new model, which drives up sales figures significantly. So far, this effect has not occurred, but that does not mean that it will not come. Apple has already laid the foundations for strong development, but it will take some time before the effects really become apparent.
When Apple introduced its new AI features in June last year, expectations were high. Many believed that these innovations would immediately drive demand for new iPhones. But the market reacted differently. The reason for this is simple: the first Apple intelligence features are not yet fully available, and the current hardware is just the beginning of a development that will extend over the next few years. The iPhone 16 sold well, but there was no sudden increase in demand. So the super cycle was postponed but not canceled.
The iPhone 16 lays the foundation but the big effect is missing
Apple has equipped the iPhone 16 with better technical data, but that alone is not enough to trigger a mass switch. At the time of the last quarterly figures, the iPhone 16 had only just come onto the market. The new AI functions had been announced but were not yet available. As a result, sales figures increased but with an increase of only 5 percent, they did not fall into the category of a super cycle. Analysts also expect solid but not exceptional sales figures for the current quarterly results. The iPhone remains by far the most important product for Apple, but for investors, growth is what counts above all. And that is precisely what has not yet happened to the extent hoped for. However, expectations for Apple Intelligence remain high. The AI functions are a strong argument for upgrades, but they will only have their full impact in the next few years.
Hardware improvements pave the way for the supercycle
Apple Intelligence is a software platform, but it requires powerful hardware to achieve its full potential. This is already evident in the current hardware updates:
- iPhone 16 series: All models have 8 GB of RAM, a feature that was previously reserved only for the Pro models.
- iPhone SE 4: The upcoming model is said to be equipped with an AI-capable chip.
- Mac upgrade: Apple has equipped all new Macs with at least 16 GB of RAM as standard.
- iPad models: Even the cheaper iPads will soon be equipped with more powerful AI-capable chips.
These changes show that Apple is actively adapting the hardware to future requirements. Rumors suggest that the iPhone 17 Pro will come with 12 GB of RAM and all iPhone 17 models will receive improved cooling. The upcoming A19 chip will also offer significant advances, especially in the Neural Engine, which is crucial for AI functions. Such aggressive hardware improvements in such a short time are rare at Apple. This suggests that the company is deliberately preparing for a new era in which AI plays a central role.
Why the iPhone supercycle is delayed but inevitable
The supercycle is not happening for two main reasons. First, the first Apple Intelligence features are not yet revolutionary enough to cause a massive increase in iPhone demand. Second, many users are still happy with their current devices and see no compelling reason to upgrade. However, this will change in the next two to three years. Apple is investing heavily in the further development of its AI technology, and new, more powerful features will be introduced with iOS 19, iOS 20 and future versions. At the same time, the hardware will continue to be optimized, so older iPhones will increasingly reach their limits. Over time, the advantage of a newer iPhone with Apple Intelligence will become so clear that many users will no longer be able to delay the switch. This is the point at which the supercycle will begin.
Apple: The super cycle is coming – just later than expected
Apple Intelligence has the potential to trigger one of the largest upgrade cycles in the history of the iPhone. But this process won't happen overnight. Current sales figures show that AI functions alone will not cause an immediate boom. But with the continuous improvement of hardware and increasingly advanced software features, this will change in the coming years. The super cycle is coming - it just needs a little time. In our Amazon Storefront you will find accessories that are just right for you! (Photo by Unsplash / appshunter.io)
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